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NL Posted: 2026-10-15T06:44:57Z

G8 FX Relative Strength Ranking (-10 to +10) COT Peildatum: 06-10-2026

Currency	Score	Status	COT Sentiment (06-10-2026)
JPY	+6.0	Strong Bullish	High Long (Short Squeeze Risk)
CHF	+5.5	Strong Bullish	High Short (Long Squeeze Risk)
EUR	+1.5	Bullish	High Short (Long Squeeze Risk)
USD	+0.5	Bullish	Neutral / Mild Long
CAD	-0.5	Bearish	Mild Short
NZD	-2.5	Bearish	Neutral / Mild Short
GBP	-3.5	Bearish	Healthy Long
AUD	-6.5	Strong Bearish	High Long (Short Squeeze Risk)

Note: COT data reflects institutional positioning as of the Tuesday prior to the Friday release. Because of this publication lag, current market sentiment may have already changed.

Understanding Relative Strength Scores

The score (ranging from -10.0 to +10.0) represents the relative fundamental strength or weakness of an asset compared to the US Dollar (USD). A high positive score indicates strong bullish macro drivers (such as inflows, momentum, or positive sentiment), while a low negative score points to bearish pressure.

Please note: A strong or weak score does not mean the market will move in that direction immediately. Quantitative models and analyses are inherently fallible and often reflect historical data. Furthermore, unexpected news, macroeconomic shifts, or sudden risk sentiment changes can alter an asset's strength or weakness instantly. Additionally, an asset with a high score can become technically overextended, increasing correction risks. Always use these scores as part of a broader risk management framework rather than a guarantee or standalone trading signal.

Fundamental Macro Analysis

JPY: Status: Strongly Bullish. Main driver: Plunge in US benchmark yields and carry-trade unwind momentum. USD/JPY dropped -0.21% as the steep drop in US 10-year yields sharply narrowed US-Japan interest rate spreads. The yen benefited heavily from safe-haven flows and continuous expectations of Bank of Japan policy normalization. Reduced yield differentials significantly lessen the appeal of short-yen carry trades.
CHF: Status: Bullish. Main driver: Safe-haven capital inflows and SNB monetary stability. The Swiss Franc outperformed most G8 peers, declining -0.20% on USD/CHF as geopolitical uncertainty sparked demand for traditional safe havens. The Swiss National Bank's balance sheet discipline and low domestic inflation environment enhance CHF's appeal during market volatility. Strong capital inflows continue to reinforce the Franc's premium status.
EUR: Status: Moderately Bullish. Main driver: ECB policy stability and narrowing US-Eurozone yield differentials. The euro showed resilience against the dollar as the pullback in US Treasury yields helped close the rate differential gap. While Eurozone economic growth remains subdued, the European Central Bank's cautious stance on monetary easing prevents aggressive sell-offs. Stable sovereign bond spreads across the bloc continue to provide structural support for the single currency.
USD: Status: Neutral. Main driver: Sharp decline in US Treasury yields balanced by sticky inflation and safe-haven flows. The US 10-year yield fell significantly by 52 basis points to 5.19%, putting temporary downward pressure on the dollar's yield advantage. However, absolute US yields remain highly attractive relative to global peers, providing underlying support. Furthermore, broader geopolitical uncertainty and risk-off sentiment continue to bolster demand for the greenback as a premier global safe haven.
CAD: Status: Neutral to Bearish. Main driver: Dovish Bank of Canada sentiment offset by economic integration with the US. The Canadian Dollar traded virtually flat against the greenback (-0.01%) amid mixed macro signals. Lower energy prices and a cooling domestic labor market keep pressure on the Bank of Canada to pursue monetary easing. However, stable cross-border trade flows with the US prevent deeper CAD depreciation.
NZD: Status: Bearish. Main driver: RBNZ rate cut expectations and subdued risk appetite. The New Zealand Dollar declined -0.10% against the USD as fragile global risk appetite dampened enthusiasm for high-yielding currencies. Softening domestic inflation figures give the Reserve Bank of New Zealand scope to accelerate rate cuts. Additionally, sluggish growth momentum in key trading partner China continues to limit top-line export growth.
GBP: Status: Bearish. Main driver: Stagflationary headwinds and dovish Bank of England market expectations. Cable slipped -0.15% as persistent weakness in UK economic fundamentals outweighs elevated inflation figures. Investors expect the Bank of England to face severe growth dilemmas, constraining its ability to maintain high policy rates without damaging the domestic economy. Fiscal execution risks and softening consumer confidence keep Sterling under broad downside pressure.
AUD: Status: Strongly Bearish. Main driver: Risk-off market sentiment, commodity headwinds, and weakness in Chinese demand. The Australian Dollar fell 0.58% against the USD, making it the worst-performing major currency in the session. Dampened demand from China for iron ore and key industrial commodities directly weighs on Australia's export revenues. Although gold prices rallied, the broader risk-averse climate severely impacts high-beta cyclical assets like the Aussie.

Summary and economic calendar

Safe-haven currencies JPY and CHF lead market performance due to falling US Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical tension.

Pro-cyclical and commodity-linked currencies AUD and NZD face pressure from risk-off sentiment and sluggish Chinese demand.

The US Dollar and Euro remain relatively stable, with declining US 10-year yields narrowing interest rate differentials across the Atlantic.

Economic Calendar - FX Street