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EN Gepubliceerd: 2026-10-15T06:44:57Z

G8 Relative Strength Ranking (-10 tot +10) COT Peildatum: 06-10-2026

Valuta	Score	Status	COT Sentiment (06-10-2026)
JPY	+6.0	Sterk Bullish	Hoog Long (Short Squeeze Kans)
CHF	+5.5	Sterk Bullish	Hoog Short (Long Squeeze Kans)
EUR	+1.5	Bullish	Hoog Short (Long Squeeze Kans)
USD	+0.5	Bullish	Neutraal / Mild Long
CAD	-0.5	Bearish	Mild Short
NZD	-2.5	Bearish	Neutraal / Mild Short
GBP	-3.5	Bearish	Gezond Long
AUD	-6.5	Sterk Bearish	Hoog Long (Short Squeeze Kans)

Let op: COT-data weerspiegelt de positionering van institutionele handelaren per dinsdag voorafgaand aan de publicatie op vrijdag. Door deze vertraging in publicatie kan het actuele sentiment inmiddels veranderd zijn.

Toelichting Relatieve Sterkte Scores

De score (lopend van -10.0 tot +10.0) weerspiegelt de relatieve fundamentele kracht of zwakte van een asset ten opzichte van de Amerikaanse Dollar (USD). Een hoge positieve score wijst op sterke macro-drivers (zoals instroom, momentum of sentiment), terwijl een lage negatieve score duidt op neerwaartse druk.

Let op: Een sterke of zwakke score betekent niet dat de markt direct die kant op zal bewegen. Kwantitatieve modellen en analyses zijn per definitie feilbaar en kijken vaak naar historische data. Bovendien kan onverwacht nieuws, beleidswijzigingen of een plotselinge 'regime shift' in de markt de sterkte of zwakte van een instrument in een ogenblik veranderen. Daarnaast kan een asset met een zeer hoge score technisch gezien oververhit raken, waardoor het risico op een correctie toeneemt. Gebruik deze scores daarom altijd als hulpmiddel binnen een breder risicobeheersplan, en nooit als een garantie of op zichzelf staand handelssignaal.

Fundamentele Macro Analyse

JPY: Status: Strongly Bullish. Main driver: Plunge in US benchmark yields and carry-trade unwind momentum. USD/JPY dropped -0.21% as the steep drop in US 10-year yields sharply narrowed US-Japan interest rate spreads. The yen benefited heavily from safe-haven flows and continuous expectations of Bank of Japan policy normalization. Reduced yield differentials significantly lessen the appeal of short-yen carry trades.
CHF: Status: Bullish. Main driver: Safe-haven capital inflows and SNB monetary stability. The Swiss Franc outperformed most G8 peers, declining -0.20% on USD/CHF as geopolitical uncertainty sparked demand for traditional safe havens. The Swiss National Bank's balance sheet discipline and low domestic inflation environment enhance CHF's appeal during market volatility. Strong capital inflows continue to reinforce the Franc's premium status.
EUR: Status: Moderately Bullish. Main driver: ECB policy stability and narrowing US-Eurozone yield differentials. The euro showed resilience against the dollar as the pullback in US Treasury yields helped close the rate differential gap. While Eurozone economic growth remains subdued, the European Central Bank's cautious stance on monetary easing prevents aggressive sell-offs. Stable sovereign bond spreads across the bloc continue to provide structural support for the single currency.
USD: Status: Neutral. Main driver: Sharp decline in US Treasury yields balanced by sticky inflation and safe-haven flows. The US 10-year yield fell significantly by 52 basis points to 5.19%, putting temporary downward pressure on the dollar's yield advantage. However, absolute US yields remain highly attractive relative to global peers, providing underlying support. Furthermore, broader geopolitical uncertainty and risk-off sentiment continue to bolster demand for the greenback as a premier global safe haven.
CAD: Status: Neutral to Bearish. Main driver: Dovish Bank of Canada sentiment offset by economic integration with the US. The Canadian Dollar traded virtually flat against the greenback (-0.01%) amid mixed macro signals. Lower energy prices and a cooling domestic labor market keep pressure on the Bank of Canada to pursue monetary easing. However, stable cross-border trade flows with the US prevent deeper CAD depreciation.
NZD: Status: Bearish. Main driver: RBNZ rate cut expectations and subdued risk appetite. The New Zealand Dollar declined -0.10% against the USD as fragile global risk appetite dampened enthusiasm for high-yielding currencies. Softening domestic inflation figures give the Reserve Bank of New Zealand scope to accelerate rate cuts. Additionally, sluggish growth momentum in key trading partner China continues to limit top-line export growth.
GBP: Status: Bearish. Main driver: Stagflationary headwinds and dovish Bank of England market expectations. Cable slipped -0.15% as persistent weakness in UK economic fundamentals outweighs elevated inflation figures. Investors expect the Bank of England to face severe growth dilemmas, constraining its ability to maintain high policy rates without damaging the domestic economy. Fiscal execution risks and softening consumer confidence keep Sterling under broad downside pressure.
AUD: Status: Strongly Bearish. Main driver: Risk-off market sentiment, commodity headwinds, and weakness in Chinese demand. The Australian Dollar fell 0.58% against the USD, making it the worst-performing major currency in the session. Dampened demand from China for iron ore and key industrial commodities directly weighs on Australia's export revenues. Although gold prices rallied, the broader risk-averse climate severely impacts high-beta cyclical assets like the Aussie.

Summary and economic calendar

Safe-haven valuta's zoals JPY en CHF voeren de markt aan door dalende Amerikaanse obligatierendementen en aanhoudende geopolitieke spanningen.

Procyclische en grondstofgerelateerde valuta's zoals AUD en NZD staan onder druk door een verminderde risicobereidheid en zwakke vraag vanuit China.

De Amerikaanse dollar en de euro vertonen een stabieler beeld, waarbij de daling van de US 10Y-yield de renteverschillen met de eurozone heeft verkleind.

Economic Calendar - FX Street